Fatal mistakes in live betting
Remember the margin
What a thing as margin is always there, always included in the bookmaker parimatch identification odds. It's like everyone has heard about it, knows about it. However, if you look at the actions, there is a strong feeling that only experienced professional players remember it seriously. The situation with margin in play is even more piquant. Leaving it out of sight may not be the most fatal, but it is a serious mistake.
It is enough to open the pre-match line and enter in any online margin calculator odds for opposite outcomes: TB 2.5 and TM 2.5, or P1 and X2. Then go to the match of the same league, which is already in the lava, and do the same thing. Almost 100% of the time the margin in play will be higher. For example, in the line before the match - 4.72%, in play - 6.98%. For some leagues and in different studios the difference can be even more serious.
It would seem that 2.26% is not that much, what's the big deal? Just imagine you win 100 bets at 1.78 and stake 10$ on them. That makes a total of $1,780. Now let's imagine the odds are lower due to the margin, only 1.13% (half of 2.26%). Let's assume the optimal situation when the margin is equally distributed by each shoulder of the result, which is not always the case in practice. The coefficient will already be 1.74, which will result in the profit of $1,740 at the same distance. Total, $40. loss, minus 4 bets, for nothing. Margin in Live is up to 9-10%. So losses over a long distance, in absolute terms, can amount to thousands of dollars.
One of the biggest mistakes of a player in live betting is betting on the current outcome. That is, some result takes place at the moment and the bettor bets exactly on what it will hold. Here are a number of examples to understand what we are talking about:
- Betting on a tie when the score is tied.
- Betting on a win with a team advantage.
- Betting on a TM 2.5 when the score is 1:1 or 2:0.
Usually such terms are taken shortly before the line is closed and the end of the match. The odds are purely "popa", 1.20 and below. How it all ends, even in the short run, should be clear enough. But such genius bets will continue to be made, and therefore we put them in one of the cruelest mistakes of the game in play.
The second point, which should be made clear: You should bet on those events that can and should still happen according to your opinion, but the score is different at the moment. The trick is to catch the high odds, which you can achieve with the "wrong score" and the lack of time. Usually we are talking about quotations from 2.00 to 5.00 and above. Only in extreme situations it is possible to play from 1.50. But it is necessary to understand that there are a lot of events in the pre-match lineup for 1.50-1.70 that can be played as it is, keeping in mind the previous point. Why should you play in live, where the margin is higher, there is less time left and everything is for the sake of such quotes. Game in play may be successful only when predicting an outcome, the real probability of which is much higher than the odds show. The point is to use the errors of the program that moves the quotes. It doesn't watch the game, and there's nothing to watch, but you do, so you can bank.
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